I see a lot of posts and analyses trying to predict when the peak will happen, and I understand it. Selling near the top and then ~ 1 or 2 years later buying near the bottom of the bear market looks like a common sense strategy but unfortunately it won’t work for the majority of us. From my personal experience, you’ll come up with one or more of the following issues:
End up with a smaller bag than the one you had at the beginning. Trying to time the market results in constantly paying attention to the charts and usually making a lot of decisions. Some decisions will be right but this is a matter of luck and there will be a lot of other wrong decisions. These wrong decisions usually stick in your head way more than the good ones so they will influence you into taking even more wrong decisions.
Get affected by all the FUD that comes with a bear market. Once in a bear market all the optimism surrounding cryptocurrencies disappears. The amount of trash news diminishing what one day appeared to be a revolutionary technology is overwhelming. Any event that makes your coin have a promising surge in price gets followed by an even bigger dip until one day you just lose faith. All of this makes it very difficult for you to identify when the bottom of the bear market really happens because you are not confident any more about investing money on it.
Missing the buying opportunities and getting to the next bull market with no crypto in your bags. After getting used to seeing the price of the coins you follow touching the floor, it comes one day that the prices begin to go up. This will have happened many times for you to think that it is just one more false rise, but it is not. It will continue to go up slowly but steadily until you start feeling that you have lost the train and that you have to wait for the next dip, which never appears to come.
I do not intend to give any financial advise with this post. These are just my thoughts after entering into crypto in 2016, believing myself to be smart enough to time the market and getting played by the market every single time. I strongly believe that everyone should take profits whenever they reach their goals and taking profits right before a bear market seems extremely efficient. However, I can’t avoid the truth that if I had just ignored every bull and bear markets since 2016 and just hold my coins, I would have made so much more money. Good luck everyone reading this and enjoy life!
Edit: I wrote unpopular opinion on the title because due to the ammount of posts I see trying to predict when the peak and the crash will happen, I felt that the common believe on this sub was to hold and sell right before the crash. But if my point of view is really popular here then it was my mistake!